Vale & West Chartered Accountants Blog

German think tank says exit from EU would cost Britain £224bn

According to Bertelsmann Stiftung, a German think tank, an exit from the EU would have a worse impact on Britain than any other EU nation.

The German study indicated that the UK economy would experience “long-term negative consequences” and only witness slow growth following the loss of trade benefits with its current EU partners.

The think tank produced three scenarios based on Britain leaving the EU in 2018, indicating three separate hypothetical results for 2030.

In a best outcome scenario the UK could hope to obtain a similar trade agreement to the one that Switzerland has in place with its former EU partners; however, at the other end of the scale, Britain could completely lose all its free trade agreements.

The sectors expected to be worst affected by a “Brexit” include financial services, chemicals, automotive and mechanical engineering.

Gross domestic product (GDP) loss per head anticipated to range from anything between 0.6 (in a best case scenario) to 3 per cent.

£224bn would be lost from the UK economy if the worst case scenario became a reality.

Aart De Geus, the chairman of Bertelsmann Stiftung, said: “A Brexit is a losing game for everyone in Europe from an economic perspective alone – particularly for the UK.

“But aside from the economic consequences, it would be an especially bitter setback for European integration as well as Europe’s role in the world.

“Setting the course for a Brexit in the general election would weaken the EU.”

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